Dear MoveOn member,
Yesterday, for the first time in history, a presidential campaign ran national TV ads during the Super Bowl.1
Donald Trump's re-election campaign ran not one but two ads, one during and one immediately after the Super Bowl, which was estimated to have an audience of at least 100 million viewers.2,3 More people watch the Super Bowl than any other TV broadcast—and by a lot.
Trump's two ads cost $11 million—a drop in the bucket for his campaign, which entered 2020 with $102.7 million in cash on hand.4,5
And this was just Trump's opening salvo. A Democratic strategist recently told The New York Times that because of his dark money backers, Trump will have "near unlimited resources" to use for his re-election.6
While Trump's early money advantage in the general election grows, Democratic candidates are still competing in the Democratic primary, with candidates having to spend tens of millions of dollars to compete against each other in the primary.
Meanwhile, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll found that Trump is favored to win re-election by 49-43 percent.7 The poll tested Trump against six potential Democratic match-ups and found that registered voters are "roughly split" between supporting Trump and backing the Democratic candidates. No Democratic candidate had a statistically significant advantage against Trump. And Democratic strategists are growing increasingly concerned that Trump's early money advantage could grow "insurmountable."8
We cannot wait until the Democratic presidential nomination is decided because it will be too late for us to overcome Trump's early advantage. MoveOn is working NOW to build the massive infrastructure that we'll need to defeat Trump in the 2020 general election, end Republican control of the Senate, and take back power to put our country on a path toward a better future. And we need you with us.
Will you chip in $5 a month, so that no matter who wins the Democratic presidential nomination, we are prepared to defeat Donald Trump and end Republican control of the Senate in November?
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
The task before us is enormous. An incumbent president has not been defeated since 1992. We know we can do this. But it's going to be the challenge of a lifetime.
We live in a divided country. One in which Fox News, Trump, and the Republican Party will do and say whatever they think is needed to win—including flat-out cheating and lying. Republicans just proved that, once again, when they voted to bring Trump's Senate impeachment trial to a close without calling a single witness.
That's where MoveOn comes in. As former Labor Secretary Robert Reich says, "No organization in America has a better track record of success in developing cutting-edge strategies to get out the vote and win elections than MoveOn."
MoveOn has the team and the tools to make a huge impact in this year's elections. And together with MoveOn members, we can help Democratic candidates win—even if Trump and the GOP raise more money than us.
We can put people power, instead of big money, at the heart of our campaigning and win.
But, nevertheless, we will still need to raise tens of millions of dollars from MoveOn members this year to run a competitive program that can win.
As Barack Obama said in the 2012 presidential election—which we won because small-dollar donors stepped up—"We can be outspent and still win—but we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win."9
So here's the question, Mar: Will we be buried by Trump and the right and unable to compete? Or will we have the resources necessary to run a people-powered operation powerful enough to succeed at our biggest challenge yet—unseating an incumbent president and ending Republican control of the Senate?
In the past, MoveOn members have funded massive, winning campaign operations—like our Real Voter Voices program, which was 400% more cost effective than TV ads at getting out the vote and helped end Republican control of the House in 2018. Now, we must go even bigger. But we can only do that with your help.
Will you start a $5-a-month donation today to help MoveOn defeat Donald Trump and end Republican control of the Senate?
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Mar, this situation requires urgent action. It might feel like Election Day is far away, but the truth is that every single day until November 3, unchecked money will flow to Trump and the Republicans to blanket the airwaves in swing states.
Yesterday's Super Bowl ads were just the latest, most visible example of Trump's huge early money advantage. We must also respond to:
- A brand-new report showing that Trump is outstripping Democrats in digital organizing by unprecedented margins. Trump's campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on ads designed to turn his impeachment into a political advantage with his base—to rile them up and turn them out to vote in November.10
- New, terrifying, and unprecedented advertising efforts from the Republicans. Trump and his enablers are using new technologies like geofencing—which uses cellphone data about who, for example, attends church and then targets them in get-out-the-vote efforts.11 And they are taking full advantage of Facebook's lie-friendly ad policy, which allows the Trump campaign and its dark money network to run ads designed to confuse voters, spread conspiracy theories, stoke anger, suppress the vote, and worse.12
- A Republican candidate laser-focused on the general election RIGHT NOW, who knows exactly where to concentrate the campaign's efforts in order to win. The presidential election in 2020, just like in 2016, will most likely be decided by a few hundred thousand votes spread across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, which will tip the Electoral College to the winner. Recent New York Times polling shows a statistical dead heat or even an advantage for Trump in every single one of these states.13 And while Democrats are fighting for the nomination, Trump is laser-focused on those general election states.
And on top of all that, remember: Trump is currently favored to win re-election.14 Yet, 62% of MoveOn members think Democrats are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to win the White House in 2020, according to our survey from last week. Only 7% think Trump is "very likely" or "likely" to win.
If the belief that we will win is grounded in hope—and followed up by an unprecedented surge in action: volunteering, donating, and staying engaged in politics all the way through November—then we can indeed win. On the other hand, if we become complacent or allow ourselves to assume that Trump can't win a second term, then WE WILL LOSE.
MoveOn has large-scale plans to combat Donald Trump's deceitful efforts head-on. But to pull off these plans, we must begin closing Trump's early money advantage and work to build our elections program RIGHT NOW. Will you start a $5-a-month donation TODAY to help MoveOn defeat Trump and end Republican control of the Senate in November?
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Allison, Manny, Brian, Corinne, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "Super Bowl viewers disgusted by 'gaslighting' Trump campaign ad: 'He's trying to prove he's not racist,'" Raw Story, February 2, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116347?t=8&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
2. "Only 1 of Trump's 2 Proposed Super Bowl Ads Ran During the Game," AdWeek, February 2, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116360?t=10&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
3. "Super Bowl ads offer no respite from 2020 presidential race," Los Angeles Times, January 31, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116180?t=12&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
4. "Watch Bloomberg and Trump's Very Different Super Bowl Ads," The New York Times, January 30, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116181?t=14&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
5. "Bloomberg and Trump Buy Super Bowl Ads at $10 Million Each," The New York Times, January 7, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116182?t=16&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
6. "Trump's Digital Advantage Is Freaking Out Democratic Strategists," The New York Times, January 29, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116171?t=18&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
7. "Trump begins reelection year more competitive against Democrats than he was three months ago, Post-ABC poll finds," The Washington Post, January 27, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116179?t=20&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
8. "Democratic Strategists Set Up $75 Million Digital Campaign to Counter Trump," The New York Times, November 4, 2019
https://act.moveon.org/go/116341?t=22&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
9. "Obama's money plea: 'we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win,'" The Blaze, June 26, 2012
https://act.moveon.org/go/116183?t=24&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
10. "How Trump is using Facebook to amplify his fight against impeachment," Vox, November 14, 2019
https://act.moveon.org/go/113289?t=26&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
11. "Trump's Geofencing Could Be a Potent Political Issue," Washington Monthly, January 29, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116184?t=28&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
12. "Trump is taking full advantage of Facebook's lie-friendly ad policy," Fast Company, January 24, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116185?t=30&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
13. "One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds," The New York Times, November 4, 2019
https://act.moveon.org/go/113142?t=32&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
14. "Trump begins reelection year more competitive against Democrats than he was three months ago, Post-ABC poll finds," The Washington Post, January 27, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/116179?t=34&akid=256216%2E10220574%2EMBGC6x
Want to support our work? The MoveOn community will work every moment, day by day and year by year, to resist Trump's agenda, contain the damage, defeat hate with love, and begin the process of swinging the nation's pendulum back toward sanity, decency, and the kind of future that we must never give up on. And to do it we need your ongoing support, now more than ever. Will you stand with us?
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
PAID FOR BY MOVEON
This email was sent to Mar Alfaro on February 3, 2020. To change your email address or update your contact info, click here. If you'd like to receive less frequent emails from MoveOn, you can click here. To remove yourself from this list, click here.
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