Dear MoveOn member,
Polling expert Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight says that "the Senate will be competitive again" in 2020.1
Here's why:
- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is only three points ahead of a generic Democratic opponent.2 And more than 60% of the voters in McConnell's home state of Kentucky are saying that "it's time for someone new" to represent the state.3
- Colorado Senator Cory Gardner is "arguably the most endangered Republican senator running for re-election in 2020".4 A poll shows him losing by eight points to a generic Democrat.5
- And in Arizona, astronaut and Democratic challenger Mark Kelly and far-right-wing Republican senator Martha McSally are TIED 44-45!6
In 2020, we absolutely must beat Donald Trump. And we won't spare any resources to do that. However, if Republicans remain in charge of the Senate, we will not pass any progressive legislation even under a Democratic administration—and it's quite likely that we'll make no appointments to the Supreme Court either.
We've got to defeat Trump. And we also must take back the Senate. But the path to winning the Senate does not just go through the states that we will need to win to defeat Trump. And even in states where Trump will be competitive, going big in Senate races will require major additional resources.
MoveOn needs to make a big decision this month: Can we staff up to take back the Senate—without making cuts to our campaign to defeat Trump in 2020?
We've set a goal of raising $200,000 by June 30—the second-quarter fundraising deadline. If we can hit that goal, then we'll know that we'll have enough early support from MoveOn members to focus on taking back the Senate and White House in 2020. Will you chip in now?
If we don't take back the Senate, the consequences will be catastrophic:
- Judges, including Supreme Court justices, who are appointed by a Democratic president will be dead on arrival. As McConnell says, "One of my proudest moments was when I looked Barack Obama in the eye and I said, 'Mr. President, you will not fill the Supreme Court vacancy.'"7 So if you think that a Republican Senate won't hold a Supreme Court seat open for an entire presidential term just because of quaint ideas like "tradition," think again.
- Progressive legislation will die in a Republican Senate. A Green New Deal will go nowhere. Medicare for All will stall. A repeal of Trump's tax increases on millions of middle-class Americans (which were used to fund cutting the taxes for the rich and corporations) will not happen. And protections for Dreamers, protections which are supported by more than 75% of voters? Those won't go into effect. That bill has already passed in the House of Representatives, but McConnell hasn't allowed the Senate to vote on it.
- And we'll have no Senate firewall in the horrifying event that Trump is re-elected. To be clear, no 2020 race is a bigger priority for MoveOn than beating Trump. But there are no guarantees. If Trump is re-elected through the industrial Midwest (and yes, it absolutely could happen), then it's still possible to take back the Senate by winning in other states. And, in that case, we will need a Democratic Senate more than ever.
We have to flip just four seats to take back control of the Senate. It's doable—it we have the resources and put in the work—but we have to start right now.
Eddie, will you chip in and help us reach our goal, so that MoveOn can work to defeat Trump and take back the Senate in 2020?
Thanks for all you do.
–Nick, Rahna, Manny, Kelly, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "The Senate Will Be Competitive Again In 2020, But Republicans Are Favored," FiveThirtyEight, November 28, 2018
https://act.moveon.org/go/67380?t=10&akid=237169%2E10220574%2Ez-hB_O
2. "Poll: 33% of Kentucky voters approve of McConnell," The Hill, February 21, 2019
https://act.moveon.org/go/67108?t=12&akid=237169%2E10220574%2Ez-hB_O
3. Ibid.
4. "The most vulnerable Republican senator in 2020," Roll Call, March 5, 2019
https://act.moveon.org/go/67381?t=14&akid=237169%2E10220574%2Ez-hB_O
5. "It's Early, But Colorado's Cory Gardner Has A Tough Road To Re-Election In 2020," FiveThirtyEight, April 24, 2019
https://act.moveon.org/go/67382?t=16&akid=237169%2E10220574%2Ez-hB_O
6. "Poll: McSally, Kelly tied in Arizona," The Hill, May 13, 2019
https://act.moveon.org/go/67383?t=18&akid=237169%2E10220574%2Ez-hB_O
7. "What Happened With Merrick Garland in 2016 And Why It Matters Now," NPR, June 29, 2018
https://act.moveon.org/go/67384?t=20&akid=237169%2E10220574%2Ez-hB_O
Want to support our work? The MoveOn community will work every moment, day by day and year by year, to resist Trump's agenda, contain the damage, defeat hate with love, and begin the process of swinging the nation's pendulum back toward sanity, decency, and the kind of future that we must never give up on. And to do it we need your support, now more than ever. Will you stand with us?
Click here to chip in $3, or whatever you can afford.
PAID FOR BY MOVEON
This email was sent to Eddie Alfaro on June 19th, 2019. To change your email address or update your contact info, click here. To remove yourself from this list, click here.
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