Dear MoveOn member,"24 new polls show GOP in grave danger of losing House in wake of government shutdown."
That's the title of the game-changing memo that we're sending to Washington reporters right now.
With small donations from MoveOn members, we hired the top firm Public Policy Polling to run polls in 24 Republican-held congressional districts this past week, and the results are truly astonishing. Yes, I'm going to go there: Democrats could take back the House in 2014—we could really fire John Boehner and bring back Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House!
In 17 districts a Democrat would likely beat the incumbent Republican if the election were held today—and that's the magic number, as Democrats need 17 seats to take back the House from Tea Party Republicans.
This is an incredible opportunity. We've seen wave elections that flip the House emerge before—as in 2006 when MoveOn was one of the first groups to say that Democrats could take back the House, and, together with our allies, we organized to do just that, and won.
- In 17 districts a Democrat would likely beat the incumbent Republican if the election were held today—and that's the magic number, as Democrats need 17 seats to take back the House from Tea Party Republicans.
- Majorities of respondents in every poll indicated that they "oppose Congress shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place."
- When voters learn that their Republican representative supported the government shutdown over Obamacare, they're even more likely to support the Democratic candidate—with four more seats flipping Democratic when people learn that news.
- The Tea Party's approval is in the gutter and some of their greatest champions are already trailing—like Steve King from Iowa who is known for immigrant-bashing, and is now trailing a Democratic opponent 45% to 49%.
If we go big now, when folks are paying attention, we can make sure voters don't forget how Republicans shut down the government, and we can create the conditions for Democrats to take back the House next year. So we've set an audacious goal of raising $500,000 this week to make the most of this moment.
This is a truly unprecedented opportunity—but we can seize it only if we can raise the resources to match. Can you pitch in?
Because of Republican gerrymandering, it will be an uphill battle. But what seemed far-fetched before—winning a Democratic majority in Congress for Obama's last two years as president—suddenly feels within reach, thanks to the GOP's own actions. They recklessly drove our government into a shutdown because they can't accept that the Affordable Care Act is the law—and voters are starting to indicate they could pay for that at the polls.
Thanks for all you do.
–Ilya, Victoria, Eric, Joan, and the rest of the team
1. "24 MoveOn polls show GOP could lose House in wake of shutdown," October 6, 2013
2. "Parties Race to Use Shutdown for 2014 Leverage," Associated Press, October 5, 2013
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