Did you read Paul Krugman's NYT piece this morning?

Hi there—This morning, Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman of the New York Times published an analysis of MoveOn polling. One of America's best poll aggregators has crunched the numbers and says: "If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the [House]."¹

Can you chip in $3 and power our campaign to make Republicans pay a political price for shutting down the government?

–Ilya

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Breaking: 24 new MoveOn-commissioned polls from Public Policy Polling show Democrats have a very real chance to take back the House in the wake of the government shutdown.2   Can you pitch in $3 and help launch a massive campaign to fire John Boehner, and bring back Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House?   Chip in $3

Dear MoveOn member,

"24 new polls show GOP in grave danger of losing House in wake of government shutdown"

That's the title of the game-changing memo that we're sending to Washington reporters right now.

With small donations from MoveOn members, we hired the top firm Public Policy Polling to run polls in 24 Republican-held congressional districts this past week, and the results are truly astonishing. Yes, I'm going to go there: Democrats could take back the House in 2014!³

In 17 districts a Democrat would likely beat the incumbent Republican if the election were held today—and that's the magic number, as Democrats need 17 seats to take back the House from Tea Party Republicans.

This is an incredible opportunity. We've seen wave elections that flip the House emerge before—as in 2006 when MoveOn was one of the first groups to say that Democrats could take back the House, and, together with our allies, we organized to do just that, and won.

Can you pitch in $3 right now to set in motion a major campaign to take back the House from Tea Party Republicans?

Yes, I can contribute $3.

Our analytics and campaigns teams have been working around the clock since the polling results started coming in, and we've crafted a major media and grassroots organizing plan targeting these swing districts that we could set in motion this week—but only if we can raise the money to fund the program.

If we go big now, when folks are paying attention, we can make sure voters don't forget how Republicans shut down the government, and we can create the conditions for Democrats to take back the House next year. So we've set an audacious goal of raising $500,000 this week to make the most of this moment.

It may seem early, but next year's elections could very well turn on the decisions being made right now—by those who choose to make nearly 800,000 public workers go without pay, who choose to try keeping millions of people from accessing health insurance, and who choose to lock thousands of children out of Head Start programs.

We've just run a major ad campaign that earned national attention, and this past week MoveOn members rallied outside dozens of congressional district offices demanding that Republicans end the government shutdown. If we double down now, we can lay the groundwork for an unexpected sweep next year—and give President Obama a Democratic-controlled Congress to work with in his final two years in office.

Can you donate $3 right now to make sure Republicans pay a price at the polls for shutting down the government?

Yes, I can contribute $3.

We're still digesting the details, but we wanted to give you a first look at these new polls because the results are so stunning. Here are a few details:

• In 17 districts a Democrat would likely beat the incumbent Republican if the election were held today—and that's the magic number, as Democrats need 17 seats to take back the House from Tea Party Republicans.
   
• Majorities of respondents in every poll indicated that they "oppose Congress shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place."
   
• When voters learn that their Republican Representative supported the government shutdown over Obamacare, they're even more likely to support the Democratic candidate—with four more seats flipping Democratic when people learn that news.
   
• The Tea Party's approval is in the gutter and some of their greatest champions are already trailing—like Steve King from Iowa who is known for immigrant-bashing, and is now trailing a Democratic opponent 45% to 49%.  

This is a truly unprecedented opportunity—but we can seize it only if we can raise the resources to match. Can you pitch in?

Click here to contribute $3.

Because of Republican gerrymandering, it will be an uphill battle. But what seemed far-fetched before—winning a Democratic majority in Congress for Obama's last two years as president—suddenly feels within reach, thanks to the GOP's own actions. They recklessly drove our government into a shutdown because they can't accept that the Affordable Care Act is the law—and voters are starting to indicate they could pay for that at the polls.

Thanks for all you do.

–Ilya, Victoria, Eric, Joan, and the rest of the team

Sources:

1. "The Midterms: Sam Wang Weighs In," October 8, 2013
http://www.moveon.org/r/?r=294193&id=76040-10220574-9Z6C81x&t=6

2. "24 MoveOn polls show GOP could lose House in wake of shutdown," October 6, 2013
http://www.moveon.org/r/?r=294125&id=76040-10220574-9Z6C81x&t=7

3. "Poll: GOP could lose House in 2014," October 6, 2013
http://www.moveon.org/r/?r=294128&id=76040-10220574-9Z6C81x&t=8

Want to support our work? We're entirely funded by our 8 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.

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