Dear MoveOn member,
We checked the forecast for election day and here's what we found:1
|Toledo, OH 59° F, 72% chance of rain|
|Pittsburgh, PA 66° F, 17% chance of rain|
|Detroit, MI 59°F, 70% chance of rain|
Chance of Trump victory: 30% = Too high.2
We may not be able to control the weather. But here's what we can influence: Voter turnout. And here's why that matters.
We're already seeing extraordinarily high voter turnout across the country in this election. But studies have shown that rain on election could depress voter turnout by about 1 percentage point for every inch of rain and hurts Democratic candidates more than Republicans.3 With the race as close as it is in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, that can be a problem.
But here's what studies also show: Direct, person-to-person voter contact works. That's why we're focusing all our efforts today on getting out the vote.
And the good news is that volunteer phone banks, like the one you can join that's going on right now, increase turnout by more than rain decreases it.4
We can't do anything about the weather but we can control our own efforts. Don't leave the results of this election to the off chance there might be some rain. Start making calls to voters in swing states, alongside other MoveOn members, right now.
Thanks for all you do.
—Milan, Matt, Erica, Manny, and the rest of the team
P.S. One more important reminder that every progressive New Yorker should know: Please cast your vote on the Working Families Party line for Hillary Clinton and other races where there are WFP candidates—it counts the same toward defeating Trump and his fellow Republicans, while building progressive power in New York.
1. "10-Day Weather Forecast," Weather Underground, accessed November 8, 2016.
2. "Who will win the presidency," FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 8, 2016.
3. "The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," The Journal of Politics, June 2007.
4. "Partisan Mobilization Campaigns in the Field: Results from a Statewide Turnout Experiment in Michigan," Political Research Quarterly, March 2006.
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