Dear fellow MoveOn member,
I've said it before: I’m afraid that Hillary Clinton could lose this election. Here are five reasons why:
1. This race is so volatile. Clinton is up, for now, by just an average of 3.2 points in the polls.1 But we’ve seen time and again how quickly Trump can catch up by managing to act sane for a week or two.
The way to win in a close election is voter turnout. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.
2. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is siphoning votes from Clinton. The Republican-turned-Libertarian’s low profile is allowing him to skate by with little scrutiny. Recent polls show that more than 20% of voters under age 30 support Johnson.2 While Johnson’s stance supporting marijuana legalization is the same as the majority of millennials, he is on the wrong side of most progressive issues—from his support of Citizens United to his refusal to take climate change seriously.3 Yet he is drawing voters from Clinton overall and among key voters in the Obama coalition, putting Clinton’s victory at risk.4
Because MoveOn isn't part of a political party, they have the ability to connect with voters who have reservations about Clinton or aren't convinced their vote really matters. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.
3. Democrats might sit this election out, if we don’t convince them to vote. Only 65% of Democrats say they're sure they'll vote this year—which is lower than it's been in decades; it’s a jaw-dropping 11 points lower than the 76% of Republicans who say they're certain to vote.5
The good news is, MoveOn is talking with plenty of unlikely voters—folks who need a little extra nudge—at the door. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.
4. According to historical patterns, it’s Trump’s election to lose. Only once in modern political history has the same party held the White House for three straight terms; after two terms, Americans have historically voted for change. The American University historian Allan Lichtman—who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election for 30 years by using a system developed through studying every presidential election from 1860 to 1980—projects that Trump will win.6
But we aren’t doomed to repeat history—if we work hard. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.
5. Republicans are “coming home” to Trump. The Republican party has consolidated around Trump, with upwards of 85% of Republicans supporting him.7 Even Ted Cruz now endorses him.8
The best way to overcome high motivation among Republicans is by turning out progressive voters. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.
With just over a month to go, we can’t afford to take our foot off the gas for even one minute. And we can’t afford to only get going on days where the election looks like it’s a 50-50 nailbiter.
That’s why I’m doing everything I possibly can to defeat Donald Trump every day—and I hope you'll join me.
Will you chip in $2.70 to MoveOn’s proven, highly-effective get-out-the-vote program right now? Just pull out your credit card and then click here to chip in.
We have to keep talking to undecided voters in the battleground states. And early voting has already started in a number of states.
If you’ve been on the fence about giving (or giving again), now is the time. I hate to ask so strongly, but this election is too important to mince words.
Can I count on you to make an urgent contribution of $2.70 to MoveOn’s election program? Just click here.
Thanks so much for all you do.
1. "General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein," RealClearPolitics, accessed October 6, 2016
2. "Hillary Clinton edges ahead of Donald Trump after first debate - CBS News poll," CBS News, October 3, 2016
3. "The myth of Gary Johnson," ThinkProgress, September 22, 2016
4. "Clinton Losing Millennial Support Nationally and in Key States," NBC News, September 18, 2016
5. "Americans Less Sure They'll Vote for President," Gallup, accessed October 5, 2016
6. "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly," The Washington Post, September 23, 2016
7. "As Election Day Nears, Republicans Come Around to Trump," The Wall Street Journal, September 23, 2016
8. "Cruz: I'm voting for Trump," Politico, September 23, 2016
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