Saturday, September 10, 2016

This ad could nuke Trump's chances

Donald Trump's climbing in the polls. It's time to go nuclear. (In a way.)

Dear MoveOn member,
Donald Trump's climbing in the polls.1 It's time to go nuclear. (In a way.) 
MoveOn made an important discovery in the course of our intensive research this summer: A key bloc of swing voters appears to be most strongly persuaded to vote against Trump when confronted with the threat of his finger on the nuclear button.2
As part of this research effort, our Video Lab made an ad, ran the video online to show it to voters in swing states, and teamed up with researchers at the Analyst Institute to study its effectiveness—and the results blew us away.

In our controlled study, men over the age of 30 who watched our video about Trump's finger on the nuclear button were seven percentage points more likely to support Clinton over Trump, compared to those who didn't watch the ad.
A seven-point swing among Trump's core supporters is HUGE. If this holds, it's a massive opportunity to chip away at Trump's advantage—if it's fresh in voters' minds as they enter the voting booth.
But we have to act fast. With Election Day around the corner, more and more of the best ad space for reaching swing voters is getting bought up—especially for the days immediately before, when it matters the most.

Will you chip in $2.70—or as much as you can afford—right now and help us snap up ad inventory in battleground states before it's gone?

Yes, I'll chip in.

This ad work is part of our broader election effort. We're going all out—hiring 100 organizers and state directors to train and mobilize volunteers to knock on more than a million targeted doors in swing states to make sure that no progressive stays home on Election Day, running a nimble video production lab, and organizing cultural, creative, and other projects that can sway the millions of potential voters who will determine the outcome of this election.
It's hard to believe, but even after everything that's happened in this election so far, nearly 20% of the electorate isn't yet on board with Clinton or Trump.3
In other words, there are a lot of votes up for grabs. Or to put it another way, there are a lot of voters who need to see our video.
The nuclear weapons message is so powerful for a simple reason: because it's true. Our nuclear system is set up to allow the president to launch a nuclear first strike with zero checks or balances.4 That's dangerous in any context. With Trump, it could be catastrophic.

You can bet that Trump will do everything he can in this final sprint to avoid reminding people that these are the stakes.

But if we can get this ad out, right when it counts most, we can make sure nobody forgets. Our digital ad purchasers are at their computers right now, watching the choicest ad inventory in key swing states get gobbled up by the hour. Can you chip in $2.70 now?

Yes, I'm in! I'll chip in now.

So much hinges on this election. But it's about more than preventing danger—it's also an opportunity. 
The world has lived in the shadow of the mushroom cloud for more than 70 years. A Trump presidency would move the Doomsday Clock ever closer to midnight. But if we can make this election a referendum, in part, on the threat of nuclear weapons, we'll have a chance not only to defeat a threat, but also to open a path towards the non-nuclear future that people everywhere have dreamed of for generations. 
To do that, we have to get the word out. The minute we know we'll have the resources, our ad buyers will reserve the best remaining ad spots before someone else gets to them. 

Click here now to chip in $2.70—or as much as you can afford.

Thanks for all you do.

—Ben W., Manny, Jayne, Erica, and the rest of the team


1. "Why Is Trump Gaining On Clinton?" FiveThirtyEight, September 8, 2016
2. "New Findings Show Highly Competitive Presidential Race in Swing States, and Effective Strategies for Using Trump’s Vulnerabilities to Engage Progressive and Swing Voters,", July 14, 2016
3. "Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking," FiveThirtyEight, September 6, 2016
4. "What Exactly Would It Mean to Have Trump’s Finger on the Nuclear Button?" Politico, June 11, 2016

Want to support our work? "I'm so enthusiastic about MoveOn's smart and targeted plan to hire a network of organizers in key battleground states to mobilize and train volunteers to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors. It's bold and ambitious—and exactly what is needed to help swing Senate races, resoundingly defeat Donald Trump, and give Democrats a fighting chance to take back the House." Will you chip in to help it all possible?

Click here to chip in $2.70, or whatever you can afford.

PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION, Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

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