Monday, May 7, 2018

An "overwhelming swing toward Democrats"

Since Donald Trump became president, there's been an "overwhelming swing toward Democrats" in special elections.

Dear MoveOn member,

I'm optimistic that we can have a wave election this year. That we can end Republican control of the House and maybe even the Senate.

But I'm also worried that we'll fall short, because as data wizard Nate Silver recently pointed out, there are two trends developing that point to very different outcomes.

So far, since Donald Trump became president, there's been an "overwhelming swing toward Democrats" in special elections.1

If this swing holds on Election Day, we will end Republican control of the House and can begin to hold Trump and his corrupt administration accountable and stop their destructive policies.

On the other hand, a recent generic ballot poll shows Democrats ahead by only seven points and implies that the battle for House control is "roughly a toss-up."2 (Because of partisan gerrymandering, Democrats need a much larger than seven-point lead to take back the House. That's unfair, but it's our reality.)

Both generic polling and special election results are typically "reliable indicators" of the general election results.3 Which means that we may end up with either outcome. We don't know why special elections have been so much better for Democrats than polls would lead us to believe, but I think that organizing and get-out-the-vote activities have a lot to do with it.

And that's exactly the kind of results-driven organizing that MoveOn was built to do. To make sure that we win this November, MoveOn is in the process of scaling up to nearly 90 staff members. That might not seem huge for an organization with millions of grassroots members, but it's a big leap in organizational size for MoveOn.

By hiring more staff early in the election season, MoveOn can be much more effective when it matters most and be able to lay the early groundwork that's needed to reach millions of voters this fall. But staffing up early is expensive. Which is why I'm asking you to give to MoveOn today.

Can you chip in $3 to help MoveOn end Republican control of the U.S. House this November and keep leading the Resistance? Click here if you can.

We need MoveOn to speak out for progressive values, always. But we especially need MoveOn now, when Republicans control Congress and the White House.

We need MoveOn now as much as we needed it in 2006, when George W. Bush was in the White House and Republicans controlled the House and the Senate.

Back then, MoveOn did critical early work to convince Democrats in Washington that we could win back the House. MoveOn gave Democrats a roadmap to win with progressive ideas and principles. It developed groundbreaking new ways to increase voter turnout. MoveOn fought like hell during election season. And we won!

Once again, we need to do early work to remind Democrats that it's worth fighting. And to tell Democrats what to fight for to make people's lives better. (Because just being better than the other guy isn't good enough—it doesn't inspire voters, it doesn't win elections, and, most importantly, it's not good for our country.)

So, as I said, MoveOn has important early election work to do. And it's got big bills to pay and payroll to make right now. Your support today will help make sure that MoveOn doesn't fall short and can do all of this critical work.

To make sure that MoveOn has the huge presence we need it to have this fall, I'm asking you to chip in $3. Will you help out? Please click here now.

I'm optimistic that together we can win and chart a better future. And I believe that if we win this year, the blue wave in the 2020 elections will be even stronger.

On the other hand, I dread to think about what'll happen if we lose, because:

  • The Republican "Cover-Up Caucus" is working hand-in-hand with the White House to sabotage Robert Mueller's investigation. If Republicans win, we can expect that the Mueller investigation will go nowhere. And in fact, Mueller may even be fired by Trump with no consequences from Republicans in Congress.
  • Progressives are more hopeful and active than I've seen them in a long time. As we've seen in special elections recently, progressives are voting in droves. But if we lose this November, I'm worried that enthusiasm for 2020 elections will collapse and Trump will win a second term.
  • And I'm worried of dire, long-term consequences if Republicans continue to control all branches of government, including the Supreme Court. Imagine if Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Anthony Kennedy were replaced by judges picked by Trump. If he gets a second term, it could well happen.

But, if we give this our all, none of those things need to happen. We can make sure of that, if we act right now.

Please, chip in $3 right now and help MoveOn lay the early groundwork needed to win.

Thanks for all you do.

–Robert Reich

P.S. I just got word that MoveOn is developing a secret new program that could change the course of the election. I'm not allowed to say much about it yet, but MoveOn's analysts are currently developing new methods of voter persuasion that are an order of magnitude cheaper than any comparable program. This program has already made a huge difference in special elections. Now, MoveOn's hiring a dozen more analysts and other staff for this project, running more tests, and refining this program, so that it's ready to go during election season.

During this critical research and development phase, just a little bit of money donated to MoveOn goes a long way. Which is why your support is needed now.

Will you chip in $3 to help MoveOn win back control of the U.S. House this November and keep leading the Resistance? Click here if you can.


1. "Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP," FiveThirtyEight, April 25, 2018

2. Ibid.

3. Ibid.

Want to support our work? The MoveOn community will work every moment, day by day and year by year, to resist Trump's agenda, contain the damage, defeat hate with love, and begin the process of swinging the nation's pendulum back toward sanity, decency, and the kind of future that we must never give up on. And to do it we need your support, now more than ever. Will you stand with us?

Click here to chip in $3, or whatever you can afford.

PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION, Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

This email was sent to Eddie Alfaro on May 8th, 2018. To change your email address or update your contact info, click here. To remove yourself from this list, click here.

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