Sunday, October 14, 2018

MoveOn's secret weapon

These are some of the most promising results we've ever seen. We've been honing this program since 2017. We've tested it through five special and primary elections so far, and time after time, it's helped get out the vote.

Dear MoveOn member,

Huge news: For months now, the data nerds here at MoveOn have been testing a secret weapon to turn out voters, and it is proving to be as much as FIVE TIMES MORE COST-EFFECTIVE than other get-out-the-vote methods, according to independent researchers. 

Take a look at this simple chart:

Impact of Voter Contact Efforts on Voter Turnout

TV ads |====
Direct mail |==========
OUR NEW METHOD      |===============================

Let's put that in perspective: Normally, MoveOn's team is delighted if we figure out something that gives us a 10% improvement. In this case, our tests of our new program show an improvement of as much as 400% over television ads.

These are some of the most promising results we've ever seen. We've been honing this program since 2017. We've tested it through five special and primary elections so far, and time after time, it's helped get out the vote.

I'll explain how it works below. But first, here's the challenge: We've kept this program relatively quiet until now, so that Republicans wouldn't try to replicate it. And now, we have only until Tuesday night to fully fund the program and buy the ad space we need to put this secret weapon into action in 100 House, 10 Senate, and eight gubernatorial races, some of which could be decided by just a handful of votes.

We don't want to cut back, because we believe that this year, of all years, we need to campaign and fight everywhere. But unless we can sign up 1,984 new weekly donors by Tuesday, we will have to scale back and make tough decisions about which close races need to be cut from the program.

Will you chip in $3 a week so that the MoveOn Analysis Team is able to deploy this secret weapon in ALL of our key target races and continue developing more breakthrough secret weapons to beat Republicans? (We will contact you shortly after Election Day to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

Yes, I'll chip in weekly to help fund the MoveOn Analysis Team and make sure MoveOn can compete in every single target race this fall and win elections!

No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly—but I can still help!

MoveOn discovered just how effective this method was by testing it out in last year's state races in Virginia, as well as in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania.

According to independent analysts:

  • Our "Real Voter Voices" program added thousands of votes for Ralph Northam in Virginia.
  • It also added thousands of votes in December's razor-tight special election in Alabama—making a huge difference in the final vote count between Doug Jones and Roy Moore.
  • And in the case of Conor Lamb, who won a narrow victory in a special election the heart of Pennsylvania Trump country, our program was one of the decisive factors!

(We wish we could share exact numbers—which are incredible!—but we'd prefer to keep them secret from Republicans.)

Will you chip in $3 a week so that the MoveOn Analysis Team is able to go big in ALL of our key target races and continue developing more breakthrough secret weapons to defeat Republicans? (We will contact you shortly after Election Day to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

Yes, I'll chip in weekly to help make sure MoveOn is big enough and strong enough to compete EVERYWHERE!

No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.

With just weeks until the election, it's too late for Republicans to steal this approach. So here is more detail than we've shared before on how our Real Voter Voices program works:

  • First, we start with authentic and personal videos. MoveOn members in key districts and states record short, unscripted videos about why this election matters to them and why they're voting for a MoveOn-endorsed candidate. We've now collected, vetted, and prepped more than 2,000 videos that speak compellingly to voters of all walks of life. That's right: real people, neighbors, constituents—not paid actors, high-price commercial ads, or trolls, bots, and other nefarious social media deceptions we're all too aware of now.
  • Then, by using cutting-edge analytics, we target voters who will find those specific videos compelling. Our analysts use lots of data and math to develop sophisticated algorithms to show each video to the voters who will most likely be persuaded by it to turn out to vote. This is possible only because MoveOn has expanded its data science team this year—and now we're able to compete at a level like never before.
  • And finally, we win BIG! When voters see videos of real people in their community—with the authentic voices that can appeal specifically to them—it has a HUGE impact on voter turnout. It's as though we sent the best possible canvasser straight to their door. Every dollar we spend on this has the impact of five dollars spent in other, more traditional ways.

Supporting our Real Voter Voices program is one of the most effective ways you can spend your money this election cycle. But we are running out of time to make final decisions about where we can run this program and where we need to make cuts, which is why we're asking you now, Eddie:

Will you become a weekly donor now? If we can sign up just 1,984 weekly donors, we can launch the Real Voter Voices program in every single one of our target races. (We will contact you shortly after Election Day to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

Yes, I'm in! I'll chip in weekly and help make sure MoveOn can compete EVERYWHERE!

No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.

Billionaire right-wing donors such as the Koch brothers are pouring in hundreds of millions of dollars to fund the usual blunt assault on the senses of swing voters—because it's expensive to swing even one vote. Just this week, we learned that Sheldon Adelson is dumping tens of millions additional dollars into races to try to save Republicans. And because they have so much money, their ugly methods are effective enough to defeat many of our progressive champions in tight races.

On the other hand, we can do far more with far less money. Unlike right-wing Super PACs, we have real people who are willing to talk personally and persuasively about this election, from the heart.

Money can't buy real voices like these, which is why our program is so much more effective for each dollar invested. Because our program is more effective, dollar for dollar, it means that we can win, even if we are outspent by wide margins. But we can't win if we have to scale back this program in races where our help is needed. That's why we need you now.

Will you chip in $3 a week and help us fund Real Voter Voices and the MoveOn Analysis Team? (We will contact you shortly after Election Day to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

Yes, I'll chip in weekly to support this breakthrough program.

No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly.

Thanks for all you do.

–Milan, Eskedar, Erica, Shelby, and the rest of the MoveOn Analysis Team

P.S. In the past several months, we've quietly collected videos from 2,334 MoveOn members who live in key districts.

They've recorded 76 hours of video in support of MoveOn member-endorsed candidates in 100 competitive congressional races, 10 Senate races, and eight gubernatorial races.

Our team has combed through for the gems, and we've built a brand-new analytic process to deploy this secret weapon in the final weeks before the election.

But we are going to have to make hard choices about what districts we can run this program in. How big we can go is up to MoveOn members. That's why we're asking: Will you chip in $3 a week and help fully fund the Real Voter Voices program and our other breakthrough innovations? (We will contact you shortly after Election Day to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

Yes, I'll chip in weekly to help MoveOn fully fund Real Voter Voices, innovate, and win elections!

No, I'm sorry, I can't chip in weekly—but I can still help out!

P.P.S. Real Voter Voices is as much as five times as cost-effective as the usual ways to turn out voters, such as direct mail. With our program, you're getting the biggest bang for your buck to help win the election. If you can't chip in weekly, then will you make a one-time gift? Click here to chip in $3, or whatever you can afford, and let's win this thing.


PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION, http://pol.moveon.org/. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

This email was sent to Eddie Alfaro on October 15th, 2018. To change your email address or update your contact info, click here. To remove yourself from this list, click here.

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